Testimonials & Quotations

Casper Weinberger (Former U.S. Secretary of Defense)

We need to recognize the magnitude of this problem, the cost of not fixing it, and the need for most businesses, large and small, to assign the highest priority to Y2K. If we do so in the next 20 months, American skill, ingenuity and production genius may be able to avoid the worst. Sadly, however, most companies and government agencies are still only surveying the problem, making inventories of what needs to be done and merely talking about it when the problem cries out for action now.

 

The chaos that could ensue has been reasonably well documented. It could result in insurance companies being told they should use premiums for policyholders who are "age minus 23 years." It could disrupt air- traffic control systems that keep planes safely separated, records of tax payments, IRS tax refunds, elevator-maintenance scheduling that keeps elevators running, issuance of Social Security and other government checks, and bank loan payments. Many more things could go awry if thousands of software programs with millions, possibly billions, of lines of code are not rewritten so that "00" is recognized as 2000.

 

Gary North (PhD in History--excellent web site)

We've got a problem. It may be the biggest problem that the modern world has ever faced. I think it is. At 12 midnight on January 1, 2000 (a Saturday morning), most of the world's mainframe computers will either shut down or begin spewing out bad data. Most of the world's desktop computers will also start spewing out bad data. Tens of millions -- possibly hundreds of millions -- of pre-programmed computer chips will begin to shut down the systems they automatically control. This will create a nightmare for every area of life, in every region of the industrialized world.

 

Jim Seymour, (Computer Journalist & Consultant; taken from PC Magazine online 2/10/98; see ZDNET):

The Y2K business--and it is extremely profitable--is full of misinformation, hype, fear mongering, and exaggeration. Certainly some of that is crass, self-promoting hype by such entities as consulting and programming shops, which stand to benefit from spreading fear about Y2K meltdowns. But a tragic if understandable backlash has begun against Y2K warnings that is ultimately even more destructive: the claim that Y2K is a myth, a nonissue that will go away if the loudmouths will just shut up.

 

It will not. It is real. I believe Y2K will be the single biggest business crisis many of us will face in our lifetimes.

 

Edward Yourdon, Computer Expert & Consultant (taken from Salon Magazine 6/11/98)

If you see any of the informal surveys on any of the newsgroups [about the Y2k bug] -- like comp.software.year2000 -- they're pretty pessimistic. The last one I saw asked for your assessment of how bad it could be on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is no big deal and 5 is, you know, the end of Western civilization. And they're usually in the range of 3 and a half to 4. Serious stuff is going to happen....

 

The thing I find scary is that a lot of the utility companies that are working on year 2000 are working on their mainframe systems -- they want to make sure their billing systems are OK -- and they haven't thought about their embedded systems. It really is very frightening. I've started getting e-mail correspondence from some Deep Throat-style informants about a couple of the bigger telephone companies that are way far behind. AT&T, MCI and Sprint are all dealing with portfolios of 300 million or 400 million lines of code. That's a big job....

 

Edward Yardeni, for instance, the chief economist at Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, argues that the SEC and NASDAQ are putting enough pressure on publicly traded companies that they're going to have to start disclosing their year 2000 expenditures. The savvy investors and Wall Street guys might start thinking, jeez, this could be a problem. The Warren Buffets of the world might start pulling out, and so on.

 

I don't think the general public is going to start to panic till much later. But Yardeni argues that you're going to see a 20 percent drop in the stock market in the second half of this year, in anticipatory reaction to year 2000 problems.

MSNBC (Report on 6/12/98)

The Year 2000 bug stems from the fact that many mainframe computers are programmed to recognize just the last two digits of a year. On Jan. 1, 2000, those machines will assume it’s the year 1900 and either crash or spew out bad data.  That flaw has placed at risk utilities, telecommunications, aviation, banking, defense and any other activity that requires mainframe computers.  The committee’s first hearing focused on utilities because of their key role in the economy. In the case of electric utilities, at risk are about 6,000 power plants, half a million miles of high-voltage power lines and about 112,000 substations. These in turn depend on built-in, preprogrammed microprocessors called “embedded systems,” many of which contain the Year 2000, or Y2K, bug. “If the power grid goes down because of connections in the computers or because of embedded chips in certain power plants that shut those power plants down because of bad software somewhere, then it is all over,” Bennett said last month on the Senate floor. “It doesn’t matter if every computer in the country is Y2K compliant if you can’t plug it into something.”

 

Stephen P. Horn (U.S. House of Representatives, speech on 6/2/98)

"Overall, the Federal Government earned an ‘F.’  Underlying this dismal grade is a disturbing slow-down in the Government’s rate of progress.   For the quarter ending February 15, the Government brought mission-critical systems into compliance at a rate of 9.4 percent; for the quarter that ended May 15, the rate of progress slowed to 7.9 percent.  This would be discouraging in any context.   Less than a year before the March 1999 deadline for Y2K repairs, a reduction in productivity is deeply troubling.  This trend must be reversed.

 

"Specific agency grades raise further concerns.  The Department of Defense earned a ‘D’ and is still not on track to complete Y2K compliance efforts until two years after the date change. "The Department of Transportation merited an ‘F.’  This grade includes the Federal Aviation Administration, which provides crucial services to the flying public.  Without dramatic improvements, the Nation’s air traffic could face serious disruptions for an extended period after December 31, 1999.  The Department of Health and Human Services also earned an ‘F.’  The Medicare program, among others, depends on the smooth functioning of its computer systems....

 

With January 1, 2000 a year and a half away, we must not panic.  The President and his administration must set priorities if the conversion is to be successful.  We must not become discouraged by the work that still remains.  This is the time to focus, to redouble our efforts, and to move aggressively forward.

 

As we have urged before, the President must use the bully pulpit and inform the people of this Nation.  Now is the time for the President to designate the Year 2000 problem as a national priority.

 

Neil Winton (Science and Technology Correspondent; taken from Yahoo News)

World economic growth may shudder to a halt, or worse, if the millennium computer bomb is not defused in time.

 

That is the conclusion of many economists, who fear that as clocks tick past midnight on December 31, 1999, computer failure at utilities, banks, governments and telecommunications centres may cripple economies across the globe.

 

Dr Ed Yardeni, chief economist at merchant bankers Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, believes that the shock to the world economy may be worse than the recession in 1973 and 1974 which followed the OPEC oil price hike.

 

"I've got my finger on the trigger. If I don't see any specifics from the G8 by the middle of June I'll sadly be raising the odds of a severe global recession from 60 per cent closer to 100 per cent," Yardeni told Reuters in a telephone interview from his New York office.

 

Senator Bennet (portions of his Speech on Senate floor 5/11/98)

Everything in the computer world is connected to everything else in one way or another. I was at the Defense Department talking to those officials about their Y2K problem and made the comment about how difficult it will be in our defense establishment if, on January 1, the screen goes blank, the various screens that handle the computerized information, in our defense establishment.

Deputy Secretary Hamre said, `No, Senator, if the screen goes blank, while that is a problem, it is not a catastrophe; because if the screen goes blank that tells you you have a problem in that particular piece of equipment. The thing we are worried about is if the screen does not go blank, the computer continues to operate, but another computer system to which it is connected starts feeding it inaccurate data.' If the computer continues to function, make its calculations that `zero zero' really does mean 1900 and begins to give you bad information, that could contaminate your entire database. That, he says, is a bigger concern than if the screen goes blank. Frankly, that had not occurred to me. I was able to add, unhappily, a third category of concern--software, hardware in embedded chips, and now connections.

These are the areas of concern. FIRST, UTILITIES. If the power grid goes down because of connections in the computers or because of embedded chips in certain power plants that shut those power plants down because of bad software somewhere, then it is all over. It doesn't matter if every computer in the country is Y2K compliant if you can't plug it into something. So we are focusing first and foremost on utilities and not just power. The water treatment system in every municipality in this country is computer driven and has the potential of being upset because of embedded chips and bad software. Utilities, therefore, are at the top of the list of the things we are addressing in our committee and are doing what we can to try to expose information about and get people worried and working on it.

SECOND IS TELECOMMUNICATIONS. What happens if you pick up the phone on January 1, 2000, and you cannot get a dial tone? I don't think that is going to happen in the United States. But the evidence is fairly clear that it is going to happen in some countries. If you are running a multinational organization, be it the Defense Department or a corporation, and you pick up the phone and you cannot get a dial tone in various parts of the world, you are in serious trouble. So, behind utilities, we are looking next at telecommunications.

THIRD, TRANSPORTATION. Instantly people think of the FAA and the inability of the air traffic control system to control airplanes, and that is a concern, but what about shipping on the high seas--global positioning systems that all have chips in them that control the navigation of the oil tankers and the other freighters that are moving commerce all over the world? Here in the United States the railroads are heavily dependent on computer systems to route the traffic that produce the shipment of the heavy materials that keep our Nation going. Transportation is clearly No. 3 following utilities and telecommunications.

FOURTH is the area that got me interested in this problem in the first place, THE FINANCIAL SERVICES. What happens if the banks cannot clear checks? What happens if there can be no electronic transfers of funds? I am happy to report that I believe we are fairly well along the road toward getting this problem solved. We have had seven hearings in my subcommittee on the Banking Committee on this issue, but we cannot relax here, either. The financial services clearly come in as the No. 4 concern.

Then, FIFTH, GENERAL GOVERNMENT SERVICES, not only Federal but State and local, as well. What happens if in our large cities the county government cannot distribute welfare checks, the county government cannot handle food stamp distribution because of computerization of the way that situation is handled? What happens if HCFA, the Health Care Financing Administration, cannot handle reimbursement of Medicare or Medicaid funds? I have talked to hospitals and other health care providers that are dependent on HCFA reimbursements for their cash flow projections and they use the HCFA cash flow to do such things as purchase ordinary supplies for running the hospital. The whole health care system could grind to a halt if the government services in this area are not made Y2K compliant. The doctors who I have talked to tell me we have long since quit dealing with HCFA with paper. All of our interconnections with HCFA are electronic, and if that system goes down, the ripple effect will be tremendous.

NEXT, GENERAL MANUFACTURING. Fortune magazine had an article on their web site pointing out how much trouble General Motors is in. I don't mean to single out General Motors because I think every manufacturer has the same kind of problem. In today's world, where computers are available, we operate a just-in-time inventory system where you do not have huge stockpiles of spare parts out on the back lot anymore. With the computer, you have it worked out with your supplier that your spare parts arrive just in time for you to put them in your final manufacturing product. The just-in-time manufacturing system shuts down altogether and the manufacturing shuts down. General Motors has done a survey of every one of their manufacturing plants and they have found embedded chips in every one of their robotic systems. If they do not get this problem solved, they will not be able to produce an automobile after January 1, 2000.

FINALLY, THE SEVENTH, listed last because it will come last chronologically, but probably should be listed first in terms of its financial impact if we do not get the other six solved, IS LITIGATION. The lawsuits that will be filed will be enormous. Estimates before my subcommittee of the Banking Committee indicate the total litigation bill could run as high as $1 trillion, one-seventh the size of the total economy that will change hands as people sue each other over the problems created by Y2K. We have to make sure we solve the other six so that number seven doesn't hit us and destroy us.

I close with this observation about the importance of this entire issue. One of the experts with whom I have been in contact since I assumed this new chairmanship said to me, `The one thing we know for sure about this is that nobody has ever done it before. We have no historical precedent to guide us, to tell us how to handle this and what we can expect.' And, of course, he was accurate. Of course, that is a true summation of where we are.

Yet when I made that comment to another friend of mine, he said something that I think summarizes exactly the challenge we are facing. He said, `No, Bob, that is not true. We have a historic example. I said, `What is it?' He said, `the Tower of Babel.' He said, `The people got together and decided they were going to build a tower to heaven, and God didn't like it, so he fixed it so they could not talk to each other and that ended it.' He said, `That is the paradigm of what we are dealing with here, Y2K.' We are facing the possibility that after January 1 we cannot talk to each other because the world is all wired by computers, and if, indeed, that turns out to be the case, as was the case in Genesis, that will end it.